A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."